When Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) officially went public in June 2026, it didn’t just break records—it shattered them. Raising a staggering $75 billion at $135 per share, the offering became the largest IPO in United States market history. By its fourth day of trading, retail frenzy and institutional FOMO pushed the stock to an intraday peak of $225.64, briefly giving the company a market capitalization of $2.2 trillion.
However, what goes up must eventually contend with market gravity. Since mid-June, SpaceX shares have tumbled roughly 35% to 40% from their all-time highs, settling into the $131–$153 range and wiping billions off its peak valuation.
While the company remains a fundamental powerhouse—commanding 60% of its revenues from its highly profitable Starlink division and benefiting from a February 2026 merger with Elon Musk’s xAI—Wall Street is beginning to sober up. Between an eye-watering valuation multiple and a massive wave of insider shares about to hit the open market, investors are re-evaluating what SpaceX is truly worth.
The Valuation Disconnect: Is SpaceX a Tech Stock or an Aerospace Play?
To understand why the stock has pulled back, you have to look at how the market is pricing the company. At its current market cap of roughly $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion, SpaceX alone is worth nearly as much as the top 41 traditional aerospace and defense companies combined.
Yet, when looking at traditional financial metrics, a massive disconnect emerges. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. While impressive, this places it 15th by revenue among aerospace peers, well behind giants like RTX ($88.6 billion) and Lockheed Martin ($75.0 billion).
The market has chosen to price SpaceX not as a heavy-industry contractor, but as a hyper-growth AI and tech monopoly. This is strikingly evident when comparing its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios against established defense and industrial peers.
P/E and P/S Ratios: SpaceX vs. Legacy Aerospace
| Company | Ticker | Forward P/E Ratio | Price-to-Sales (P/S) | Business Focus |
| SpaceX | SPCX | 197.7x | ~87.2x | Space launch, Starlink broadband, AI (xAI) |
| BWX Technologies | BWXT | 36.6x | 4.9x | Nuclear components, defense infrastructure |
| GE Aerospace | GE | ~35.0x | 8.0x | Commercial and military jet engines |
| RTX | RTX | ~17.5x | 2.8x | Defense systems, aerospace components |
| Lockheed Martin | LMT | ~15.2x | 1.6x | Military aircraft, traditional space systems |
Data metrics sourced from July 2026 financial models and sector benchmarks.
A Forward P/E of nearly 198x means investors are paying a massive premium for future earnings growth that is far from guaranteed. Bullish analysts justify this premium by pointing to Starlink’s dominant monopoly in satellite internet, the company’s expanding government defense contracts, and the future potential of the xAI merger. However, the broader space segment and the newly acquired AI segment continue to post billions in operating losses. At 87x sales, the margin for error is non-existent, leaving the stock highly vulnerable to the slightest shifts in market sentiment.
The Supply Threat: Understanding the Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry
Perhaps the most significant near-term headwind for SpaceX is its impending IPO lock-up expiration.
When a company goes public, early investors, venture capitalists, and employees are typically barred from selling their shares for a set period to prevent the market from being flooded with supply. Because SpaceX made less than 5% of its total shares available during its IPO, the resulting scarcity drove the initial price spike to $225. That artificial scarcity is about to end.
According to the company’s prospectus, the first major wave of lock-up releases is tied to the company’s earnings calendar. On the second full trading day following SpaceX’s first public earnings report (expected in August 2026), up to 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale by rank-and-file employees and early investors.
Why the Expiry Matters
- Unprecedented Volume: This single tranche of 911.5 million shares is larger than the entire June IPO offering.
- Capital Overhang: At current trading prices, those eligible shares are worth over $115 billion, dwarfing the $86 billion worth of shares currently floating on the Nasdaq.
- Rolling Unlocks: The supply wave doesn’t stop in August. Smaller slices (roughly 7% of locked shares) will unlock every two to three weeks through October, with another massive 28% tranche releasing after the third-quarter earnings report in December. (Elon Musk’s personal stake remains locked until mid-2027).
Lock-up expirations act as a crucial stress test for a newly public company. The recent 35% slide in SPCX’s stock price indicates that institutional investors and traders are already front-running the event, selling off positions before the new supply hits the market. If the market lacks the institutional demand to absorb this $115 billion tidal wave of equity, the stock could face severe downward pressure, potentially testing its $135 IPO price as a floor.
Looking Ahead: The True Test for SPCX
SpaceX remains one of the most innovative and consequential companies of the 21st century. Its ability to rapidly iterate on Starship, scale Starlink into a global utility, and integrate artificial intelligence gives it a total addressable market that legacy defense contractors cannot match.
However, a great company does not automatically equate to a well-priced stock. Trading at nearly 200 times forward earnings and facing a massive influx of tradable shares, SpaceX’s current valuation leaves no room for execution missteps. Investors looking to buy into the multi-planetary vision may want to exercise patience. The true market value of SpaceX won’t be dictated by the initial IPO hype, but by where the stock settles once the lock-up floodgates open this fall.
